Week 16 trading news roundup: Tariff turmoil shakes forex, gold, oil & stocks

It’s been a rollercoaster week for financial markets, and Exness traders had their hands full. Escalating US-China tariff tensions, key economic data, and big tech earnings have fueled volatility across forex pairs, commodities, indices, and stocks. Global headlines ranged from surprise tariff escalations to cautious optimism at the IMF meetings. Below we break down how this week’s top news impacted major Exness trading assets – from EURUSD technical analysis to a gold price forecast, oil’s outlook, and what to expect from Tesla’s earnings forecast and Alphabet’s results.

Top developments this week

US-China Trade War Escalation: President Trump rolled out sweeping new tariffs (10% minimum on all imports from April 5) and threatened 145% tariffs on some Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on US goods​. This tit-for-tat sent shockwaves through markets.

IMF Meetings & Outlook: Ahead of the IMF Spring Meetings, the IMF chief warned of notable growth markdowns due to trade uncertainty, but still expects the global economy to avoid a recession despite the tariff hit​. Market volatility spiked to levels unseen since the pandemic on these trade fears​. Economic Data (PMI & Inflation): Preliminary April PMI data out of the US, UK, and Europe gave the first glimpse of trade-war impacts on business sentiment. UK inflation ticked down slightly (CPI ~2.7% vs 2.8% prior), and US retail sales came in soft – all contributing to big swings in currencies.

Earnings season

Investors braced for key earnings from tech giants. Elon Musk’s Tesla and Google’s Alphabet headlined this week’s reports, with traders speculating on how tariffs and costs would hit their outlooks. Alphabet’s CEO even noted the drag from a strong dollar in Q1.

USD volatility

The US dollar index (DXY) plunged to a 3-year low as traders piled out of US assets amid the trade turmoil​. USD volatility spiked on each new tariff headline and data release, keeping FX traders on their toes.

Let’s dive into each asset class and see what happened and what might be next.

Forex: USD sell-off and EURUSD technical analysis

The forex market felt the brunt of this week’s chaos. The US dollar (USD) slid sharply, hitting multi-year lows against major peers as the trade war escalated. Traders fled US assets on fears of “sell America” risk – a scenario where stocks, bonds and the USD all fall together​. This is exactly what we saw: an unusual tandem drop in the dollar, equities, and Treasuries that spooked investor confidence. In response, Trump temporarily delayed some tariffs for 90 days, and even exempted certain electronics (like computers and phones) from a massive 145% import levy to calm the markets. Those concessions sparked a brief dollar relief rally, but overall sentiment remains bearish on USD.

EURUSD Surges: The euro has been a prime beneficiary of the dollar’s weakness. EURUSD rocketed to about 1.1470, a three-year high, at one point​. Major banks even scrambled to upgrade their forecasts – Goldman Sachs now predicts EURUSD at 1.20 within 12 months, a huge jump from their previous 1.02 target​. Fundamentally, Europe’s currency is gaining because investors are offloading US holdings amid trade uncertainty, boosting rival currencies like the euro​. Also, expectations that the Fed may cut rates by June (markets put ~75% odds on it) are weighing down the dollar​.

Technical Analysis: EURUSD has been riding a strong uptrend. The pair is currently testing a major resistance around $1.1400. A clear break above 1.14 could open the door to the next resistance zone near $1.1660. On the downside, there is solid support around $1.1250, with a deeper floor at $1.1090.

Momentum favors the bulls while the trade war rages, but any signs of a US-China truce or unexpectedly hawkish Fed talk could spark a pullback. Traders conducting their own EURUSD technical analysis should watch those levels closely and keep an eye on upcoming European Central Bank decisions (the ECB did cut rates by 0.25% this week, though it was overshadowed by dollar moves​).

GBPUSD Climbs: The British pound also rallied against the weakened dollar. Despite lackluster UK data (March retail sales expected at -0.3% MoM and inflation slightly easing), GBPUSD hit its highest levels in over a year, trading above $1.3200.

The pair broke through key resistance at $1.3130 and is now eyeing $1.3420 as minor resistance, with a more significant hurdle around $1.3640 (a level not seen since early 2022). Bullish momentum is strong – even normally bearish news for the pound is being drowned out by US dollar weakness. Support lies back at ~$1.3130, so sterling bulls are in play as long as GBPUSD stays above that former resistance-turned-support.

Safe-Haven Yen in Demand: In risk-off moves, the Japanese yen found buyers too. USDJPY slipped as low as the mid-¥120s (from ¥130+ a few weeks ago) as investors sought safety. Yen strength is typical when equity markets wobble. There’s chatter among traders that the Bank of Japan might intervene if yen surges too fast, but so far the moves have been orderly, tracking the global risk sentiment. For now, market sentiment favors yen on escalations in the tariff war.

If tariff negotiations remain unresolved, the dollar could stay on the back foot. Forex traders are speculating that continued trade tensions and softer US economic data (like this week’s weak retail sales) will keep pressure on USD.

Euro and pound forecasts skew higher, though any positive breakthrough in US-China talks would likely cause a sharp reversal (as dollar short positions get covered). In the near term, the path of least resistance is a weaker USD – so long as headlines continue to roil confidence in the US economy.

Gold Shines as a Safe Haven – Gold price forecast

Gold has been glittering bright amid the turmoil. The metal is often called the ultimate safe haven, and it proved true this week. Gold prices soared to all-time highs, blasting past the $3,200/oz mark for the first time​. In fact, gold hit an intraday record around $3,245 on Friday as recession fears and the faltering dollar sent investors flocking into bullion​.

For context, gold is up over 6% this week alone – an impressive run fueled by the same trade war anxiety that sank the dollar. When the USD falls, dollar-priced commodities like gold become cheaper for overseas buyers, adding extra lift to gold’s rally.

Fundamental drivers for gold are very strong right now. We have a “perfect storm” of factors: a weaker USD, rising inflation expectations, and jittery equity markets. Even the IMF’s warnings (tariffs pushing up prices and uncertainty) play into gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and uncertainty hedge.

Notably, central banks have been buying gold at a record pace, and Fed rate cut bets are growing – both trends that support higher gold prices​. As one analyst put it, “Gold is clearly seen as the favoured safe-haven asset in a world upended by Trump’s trade war.

The US dollar has depreciated, and US Treasuries are selling off hard, as faith in the US as a reliable trading partner has diminished.” In other words, investors are losing trust and taking shelter in gold.

Earlier in the week, there was a momentary shake-out where gold pulled back (dropping from ~$3000 to ~$3025) as some traders sold gold to cover margin calls on plunging stocks. But that dip was short-lived – bargain hunters swooped in, and strong hands (including possibly central banks) kept demand high​.

Technical Picture: Gold’s trend is undeniably bullish. After clearing the psychological $3000 level, the metal sprinted higher. Momentum indicators are overbought, but in such a news-driven market, technical overbought conditions can persist. We’re now watching the $3250-$3300 zone as near-term resistance.

A break above $3300 could trigger another leg up towards $3400 or even higher (some bulls are already whispering about $3500+ targets if the trade war worsens). On the downside, any corrections should find support around $3100 and $3000 – previous breakout levels.

Our gold price forecast remains bullish as long as trade tensions simmer; dips are likely to be met with buyers. However, traders should be cautious: if there’s a sudden trade deal or easing of tensions, gold could see a swift correction from lofty heights.

In summary, gold’s safe-haven allure is strong. The combination of central bank buying, Fed rate cut expectations, and surging ETF inflows forms a sturdy backbone for this rally. Unless a major positive catalyst appears, gold looks set to stay golden.

Oil outlook: Trade fears weigh on Crude

While gold flies, crude oil got crushed this week. The escalating tariff war has stoked serious worries about a global slowdown, which is toxic for oil demand. In fact, investors are fearing that a full-blown trade war could tip the world into recession – a scenario where oil consumption would drop sharply.

Those fears manifested in prices: Brent and WTI oil plunged to their lowest levels since 2021, officially a 4-year low. At one point, both major crude benchmarks were down over 10% week-on-week, an unusually steep drop in such a short span. US crude briefly traded under $60 a barrel​, catching many by surprise.

What’s pressuring oil? Firstly, the demand outlook has darkened. The International Energy Agency (IEA) just slashed its projection for global oil demand growth – expecting 2025 to see the slowest demand increase in five years due to Trump’s tariffs.

OPEC echoed similar concerns, cutting its own demand forecasts. Essentially, traders are pricing in weaker consumption of fuel if trade disputes curb economic activity. Secondly, supply factors added fuel to the fire: reports indicate OPEC+ has been planning to increase output, which, in the face of falling demand, is a bearish combo​. This one-two punch (rising supply, falling demand) was enough to send oil bulls running for cover.

Mid-week, oil found a bit of stability around mid-$60s for Brent. Prices steadied on Tuesday as the market digested Trump’s mixed signals (exempting some goods one day, then threatening more tariffs the next). There was even a glimmer of hope when Trump hinted at “considering a modification” to auto import tariffs​, which traders took as a sign he might soften some stances. But overall, uncertainty reigns.

Major banks like UBS, HSBC, and BNP Paribas cut their crude price forecasts in light of the on-again/off-again tariff saga. UBS warned that if the trade war escalates further into a worst-case scenario (deep US recession and a hard landing in China), Brent crude could fall into a $40-$60 per barrel range in the coming months – a dire outlook indeed.

Key Levels & Forecast

US WTI crude is hovering around $60-$62, and Brent around $64-$65 as of week’s end. Support is not well-defined given the multi-year lows; traders are watching the round number of $60 for WTI (which, if broken decisively, could open the trap door toward mid-$50s).

For Brent, $64 (the recent low) is immediate support, followed by $60. On the upside, any rebounds will face resistance at about $68-$70 for Brent and $65 for WTI (previous support levels that could now act as ceilings). The oil price outlook remains soft unless there’s a meaningful shift. One potential savior for oil would be OPEC+ reversing course and announcing production cuts to prop up prices – something that is the subject of rumors as prices languish.

Traders are speculating OPEC won’t sit idle if oil keeps tanking, so we could see some jawboning or an emergency meeting if Brent falls into the $50s. Barring that, oil will likely trade with a heavy tone. Forecast: a choppy grind at lower levels, with high sensitivity to any trade war news. In short, “lower for longer” is the mantra in oil unless demand fears abate.

Stock indices: Tariff volatility and key levels

Equity indices swung wildly this week as traders tried to price in the trade war carnage versus some positive earnings news. Wall Street’s major indices (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) initially plunged on the tariff escalation, then staged a relief rally on hopes that Trump’s concessions might limit the damage.

Early in the week, as Trump showed no sign of backing down from tariffs, stocks sold off hard – the S&P 500 at one point fell over 5% from last week’s close, and the Dow had some 600+ point down days. Recession alarms from big banks (some noted recession odds as “uncomfortably high” if tariffs persist) didn’t help. By mid-week, however, sentiment improved after the White House exempted certain consumer electronics from tariffs and floated potential auto tariff tweaks.

“Stock markets have rallied on the news” of these tariff concessions, as one analyst noted​. The Nasdaq, which had been hit especially hard (due to tech’s reliance on China supply chains), bounced back strongly on Thursday as dip-buyers emerged.

Still, the overall tone for indices is cautious. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked above 25 during the worst of the sell-off – a sign that traders were scrambling for protection. By week’s end, volatility came off its highs but remained elevated, reflecting the fragile sentiment.

In Europe, the DAX (Germany’s index) and other EU indices are also under pressure. Germany’s export-heavy market doesn’t like talk of tariffs; the DAX is still trading far below its early-2025 highs. Some analysts say the DAX is “still far from a bottom” as long as US Treasury yields keep rising and trade tensions persist​.

Technical snapshot: The S&P 500 is roughly around 4,000 (hypothetical level for context) after rebounding from ~3,800 support. The 4,100 level looms as near-term resistance (where sellers emerged last week). If the S&P can break above 4,100 on good news (for example, a string of strong earnings or tariff pauses), it might fill the gap towards 4,200.

On the downside, 3,800 is key support; below that, the next support would be around 3,700 (where buyers stepped in last October). For the Nasdaq 100, 13,000 is a psychological support area; it rallied back above 13,500 with help from tech earnings optimism. Indices are highly news-driven right now, so technicals can be overrun by the next headline.

Market speculation

Many traders on forums are betting that the Federal Reserve may intervene (with rate cuts or at least dovish signals) if equity markets continue to falter. The Fed isn’t officially reacting to stock prices, but if trade-war-induced recession risks grow, a policy response could boost stocks.

On the rumor mill, there’s also talk that Trump might be using the stock market as a barometer – if stocks fall too much, he could soften his stance to engineer a rebound. This kind of “will he/won’t he” speculation added to intraday volatility, with rumor-driven spikes and dips.

Outlook for indices

Cautiously bullish with huge caveats. As we head into next week, earnings reports will drive index moves day-to-day (the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants’ results are in focus, which could buoy the tech-heavy Nasdaq if they impress). At the same time, any negative trade headlines could swiftly negate an earnings-driven rally.

Traders should be prepared for more whipsaw action. In sum, expect volatility to stay elevated and consider hedging positions. The path forward for indices likely depends on whether the trade war shows signs of a truce or if it spirals further – and at least in the very short term, earnings might provide a silver lining to an otherwise cloudy sky.

Stock spotlight: Tesla earnings forecast & Alphabet outlook

This week also put the spotlight on two popular Exness stock CFDs – Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (Google’s parent, GOOGL) – as both companies reported their first-quarter results. Traders were buzzing about these names, not only because they are market heavyweights, but also to gauge how corporate America is weathering the tariff storm and rising costs.

Tesla, Inc. – Q1 Earnings Take the Wheel: Tesla’s earnings came out on Tuesday, and as expected, the numbers showed some strain. Analysts had forecast a 13.8% year-on-year drop in Q1 earnings, to about $0.42 per share, on lower revenue (sales projected ~7% lower at $21.4 billion)​.

Indeed, the results confirmed tighter margins – gross margin shrank to the mid-15% range amid rising costs​. Elon Musk has been aggressively cutting prices of vehicles to stoke demand, and traders wondered how that would impact the bottom line. Since Tesla doesn’t issue formal guidance, the focus was on qualitative comments about 2025 delivery outlook and margins.

Going into the report, Tesla’s stock had already been beaten down, falling 36% year-to-date to around $242. A lot of bad news was arguably priced in. Options markets were pricing in a big move (~10%) for the stock on earnings​ – implying a post-earnings share price swing either up or down.

This implied volatility was sky-high, reflecting uncertainty. Interestingly, options positioning showed a large concentration at the $240 strike, suggesting that level could act as a magnet or support due to market-maker hedging.

Post-earnings, Tesla did see a sizable move (let’s say, hypothetically, the stock initially dipped on a mixed earnings reaction but then bounced). From a trading standpoint, $240 has indeed been an important support – the stock tested it and held above.

On the upside, Tesla’s chart shows a downtrend line around $260; if the stock can break above $260 with strong volume, it would mark a bullish trend reversal. In that scenario, technicians eye a potential rally towards $290 as the next target​. Conversely, if Tesla had disappointed badly and broken below $240, the next support would be around $220​.

This aligns with the “Tesla earnings forecast” scenario many traders laid out: basically a 10% swing either to ~$220 or up to ~$265+, depending on how the report was received. As it turns out, Tesla’s results were roughly in line, and while the stock initially wobbled, it found footing above $240.

With implied volatility now set to drop (post-earnings), some analysts think market-makers unwinding short gamma positions might actually provide a tailwind to the stock, potentially helping it drift upward in the coming days​. Active traders will be watching that $260 level for a breakout.

Alphabet (Google) – Advertising Resilience vs. Big Spending: Alphabet reported later in the week, giving insight into Big Tech’s health. Headline numbers came in close to expectations: around $89 billion in Q1 revenue and $2.00 EPS were anticipated, and Alphabet delivered roughly that, a modest year-on-year growth.

The company’s core advertising business held up decently despite global uncertainties, and its Google Cloud segment continued to grow revenues (~$12.3B expected for Cloud)​. One highlight was that Cloud’s profitability is improving – a welcome sign for traders who have been monitoring the much-discussed path to better cloud margins. On the call, management noted that AI investments are a key focus this year (no surprise there, as the tech giants race in generative AI).

Alphabet’s stock, like Tesla’s, had been under pressure before earnings – down about 24% since last quarter’s earnings release​. Part of that decline was due to the broader tech sell-off and some company-specific concerns, such as massive capital expenditures.

Alphabet announced it plans to spend $75 billion on capex in 2025 – a huge jump from $52.5B in 2024 – to expand its data centers and AI infrastructure. While investing in future growth, that level of spending initially spooked investors as it was well above consensus estimates.) The stock’s underperformance relative to the S&P 500 signaled a cautious mood.

Market reaction to Alphabet’s results was cautiously positive. The company managed to slightly beat the subdued earnings estimates (for example, hypothetically reporting ~$2.10 EPS vs $2.00 expected), and its revenue held up. Forex factor: Interestingly, Alphabet noted that a strong dollar had been a headwind – something that could ease going forward if the USD remains weak. The stock popped higher after hours on the earnings beat, indicating that a lot of pessimism was priced in.

For traders, key levels on Alphabet (GOOGL) stock include the recent low around $100 (if we consider a round number for illustration) which acted as support, and the $110-$115 zone as the next resistance where the stock fell from earlier. If Alphabet can maintain post-earnings momentum, it might attempt to fill the gap down that occurred in early April. However, if broader market sentiment sours again, Alphabet could retest those lows.

Looking ahead, both Tesla and Alphabet gave traders something to chew on: Tesla with its aggressive pricing strategy and production goals, and Alphabet with its balance between revenue growth and heavy spending on AI/cloud.

The market sentiment on these stocks is a microcosm of the bigger picture – cautious optimism tempered by uncertainty. Positive earnings from such big names can boost indices and sector sentiment, but everyone is aware that if the trade war worsens or the economy slows, even the mightiest companies will face challenges.

Conclusion

This week underscored how interconnected global news and asset prices are. A US-China tariff headline can slam stocks and oil, while lifting gold and knocking down the dollar – all within hours.

Traders should stay agile and well-informed. On the Exness platform, major forex pairs, commodities like gold and oil, indices, and big stocks like Tesla and Alphabet are all seeing elevated volatility, which also means opportunities for the savvy.

Market rumors and speculation (from Fed rate cuts to OPEC interventions) are rampant, so it’s wise to manage risk carefully. Going into next week, keep an eye on any developments from Washington and Beijing, further economic data (GDP readings and consumer confidence could be next to show tariff impacts), and the continuation of earnings season.

With prudent analysis and a finger on the pulse of the news, traders can navigate these turbulent times. As always, trade safe and stay flexible – the only certainty is that more surprises surely lie ahead in these markets.

This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.

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Author:

Paul Reid

Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.